EURO2008 overview

Group A Pld Pts

Poland 12 24
Portugal 12 23
Serbia 12 20
Finland 12 20
Belgium 12 15
Armenia 10 9
Kazakhstan 12 7
Azerbaijan 10 5

Group C Pld Pts

Greece 10 25
Norway 10 20
Turkey 10 18
Bosnia-Herzegovina 11 13
Hungary 10 12
Moldova 11 9
Malta 10 5

Group E Pld Pts

Croatia 10 26
England 11 23
Russia 10 21
Israel 10 17
F.Y.R. Macedonia 10 11
Estonia 11 4
Andorra 10 0

Group G Pld Pts

Romania 10 26
Netherlands 10 23
Bulgaria 10 19
Albania 10 11
Slovenia 11 11
Belarus 10 7
Luxembourg 11 3

Group B Pld Pts

France 11 25
Scotland 11 24
Italy 10 23
Ukraine 10 16
Lithuania 10 10
Georgia 11 10
Faroe Islands 11 0

Group D Pld Pts

Czech Republic 10 23
Germany 10 23
Republic of Ireland 11 16
Cyprus 10 14
Slovakia 10 13
Wales 10 13
San Marino 11 0

Group F Pld Pts

Sweden 10 23
Spain 10 22
Denmark 10 17
Northern Ireland 10 17
Latvia 10 9
Iceland 11 8
Liechtenstein 11 7

Group A Pld Pts

Poland 12 24
Portugal 12 23
Serbia 12 20
Finland 12 20
Belgium 12 15
Armenia 10 9
Kazakhstan 12 7
Azerbaijan 10 5

No team qualified yet. Poland and Portugal most likely to. Poland to play Belgium at home and Serbia away (difficult). Portugal both at home to Armenia and Finland.

Group B Pld Pts

France 11 25
Scotland 11 24
Italy 10 23
Ukraine 10 16
Lithuania 10 10
Georgia 11 10
Faroe Islands 11 0

3-horse race. France to still play away to Ukraine. Scotland to host Italy. (Italy finish against Faroe Islands)

Group C Pld Pts

Greece 10 25
Norway 10 20
Turkey 10 18
Bosnia-Herzegovina 11 13
Hungary 10 12
Moldova 11 9
Malta 10 5

Greece qualified.
Norway to host Turkey on 17/11 to determine 2nd place (Turkey then play Bosnia-H and Norway away to Malta).

Group D Pld Pts

Czech Republic 10 23
Germany 10 23
Republic of Ireland 11 16
Cyprus 10 14
Slovakia 10 13
Wales 10 13
San Marino 11 0

Czechs and Germans qualified.
Amazing Cyprus.

Group E Pld Pts

Croatia 10 26
England 11 23
Russia 10 21
Israel 10 17
F.Y.R. Macedonia 10 11
Estonia 11 4
Andorra 10 0

Croatia almost qualified.
Russia need to win 2 remaining games against Israel and Andorra.
England...

Group F Pld Pts

Sweden 10 23
Spain 10 22
Denmark 10 17
Northern Ireland 10 17
Latvia 10 9
Iceland 11 8
Liechtenstein 11 7

Sweden and Spain almost certainly qualified with 2 games left.
Denmark and Northern Ireland with a theoretical chance.

Group G Pld Pts

Romania 10 26
Netherlands 10 23
Bulgaria 10 19
Albania 10 11
Slovenia 11 11
Belarus 10 7
Luxembourg 11 3

Romania qualified.
Netherlands need only to beat Luxembourg or Belarus.

could the german loss yesterday actually help england?

its sad that its come down to this but i doubt croatia want to be the best qualiers any more than germany do..would a croatia loss against england save them from being put in the first (top) pot..?

so that brings us to the probable line-ups for next year:

1. Switzerland
2. Austria
3. Czech Republic
4. Germany
5. Greece
6. Romania
7. Netherlands
8. Croatia
9. Russia/England
10. Poland
11. Portugal
12. Sweden
13. Spain
14. France
15. Italy/Scotland
16. Norway/Turkey

toon h wrote:Group A Pld Pts

Poland 12 24
Portugal 12 23
Serbia 12 20
Finland 12 20
Belgium 12 15
Armenia 10 9
Kazakhstan 12 7
Azerbaijan 10 5

No team qualified yet. Poland and Portugal most likely to. Poland to play Belgium at home and Serbia away (difficult). Portugal both at home to Armenia and Finland.

If poland don't win against Belgium then this group is far from over. Next games for Finland is Azerbaijan so prob 23 points, then Portugal. And for Serbia it's Kazakhstan so also probably on 23 points. Portugal should win the next one, but Poland may not.

Then there'd be Portugal 26, Poland 25 (if draw against belgium), Serbia 23, Finland 23. With wins both Serbia and Finland (unlikely) could go through.

toon h wrote:so that brings us to the probable line-ups for next year:

1. Switzerland
2. Austria
3. Czech Republic
4. Germany
5. Greece
6. Romania
7. Netherlands
8. Croatia
9. Russia/England
10. Poland
11. Portugal
12. Sweden
13. Spain
14. France
15. Italy/Scotland
16. Norway/Turkey

Probable pots:
pot1:
Switzerland, Austria, Greece, Italy
Pot2:
Netherlands, Germany, France, Portugal
Pot3:
Russia/England, Sweden, Croatia, Spain
pot4:
Norway/Turkey, (Scotland), (Russia), Romania, Poland

you forgot Poland there DD.

I think Germany is still more probable for Pot 1, because for us only the results from Euro qualifying count. We have two more home matches where players will be trying to get into (or stay in) the squad. Should be two wins. And if we're even on points we also have the best goal diff of all teams.

Easiest group:
Austria
Germany
Croatia
Poland

Toughest:
Italy
pot2
Spain
Romania

Effenberg wrote:I think Germany is still more probable for Pot 1, because for us only the results from Euro qualifying count. We have two more home matches where players will be trying to get into (or stay in) the squad. Should be two wins. And if we're even on points we also have the best goal diff of all teams.

It wouldn't surprise me if they tried to shoehorn Germany into pot 1 to be honest - Der Kaiser still has a lot of influence.

I thought thye included the results from the last two EC (in which Germany where horrible) and the recent WC result as another marker:
Italy (good EC results: final and qF + winner WC)
Portugal (EC QF, final + WC SF)
Netherlands (EC SF, SF + WC last 16)
France (EC winner, QF + WC final)

Germany (EC group, group + WC SF)

For a EC top seeding I think Germnay have the worst papers, despite the best qualifying campaign arguably.

Sepp and Michel will surely surprise us with another shock seeding I'm sure.

DD wrote:

Effenberg wrote:I think Germany is still more probable for Pot 1, because for us only the results from Euro qualifying count. We have two more home matches where players will be trying to get into (or stay in) the squad. Should be two wins. And if we're even on points we also have the best goal diff of all teams.

It wouldn't surprise me if they tried to shoehorn Germany into pot 1 to be honest - Der Kaiser still has a lot of influence.

I thought thye included the results from the last two EC (in which Germany where horrible) and the recent WC result as another marker:
Italy (good EC results: final and qF + winner WC)
Portugal (EC QF, final + WC SF)
Netherlands (EC SF, SF + WC last 16)
France (EC winner, QF + WC final)

Germany (EC group, group + WC SF)

For a EC top seeding I think Germnay have the worst papers, despite the best qualifying campaign arguably.

Sepp and Michel will surely surprise us with another shock seeding I'm sure.

WC and EC qualifying results are all that count. Since we didn't have to qualify for the WC, for us it's only the EC qualifiers.

Apart from the fact that it's the typical anti-German conspiracy bullshit, why would they even want to "shoehorn" Germany into pot 1?

Pot 1 guarantees a group of death.

Pot 2 is where the big ones want to go.

Effenberg wrote:
WC and EC qualifying results are all that count. Since we didn't have to qualify for the WC, for us it's only the EC qualifiers.

Apart from the fact that it's the typical anti-German conspiracy bullshit, why would they even want to "shoehorn" Germany into pot 1?

Pot 1 guarantees a group of death.
Pot 2 is where the big ones want to go.

it really doesn't. it jsut guarantees you'll get at least one of the big teams. you could get poland and croatia as the other 2 teams and that'd be a nice enough group. plus the first pot guarantees you avoiding the hosts - sure, austria are playing $h!t, but home advantage is a big thing. the hosts generally qualify, would i be right in thinking that belgium are the only exceptions in any world cup/euro tournament?

Effenberg wrote:Apart from the fact that it's the typical anti-German conspiracy bullshit, why would they even want to "shoehorn" Germany into pot 1?

Woke up badly Effenberg?

It only in jest my dearest


Even though the group draw for the WC06 WAS rigged.

debaser wrote:

Effenberg wrote:
WC and EC qualifying results are all that count. Since we didn't have to qualify for the WC, for us it's only the EC qualifiers.

Apart from the fact that it's the typical anti-German conspiracy bullshit, why would they even want to "shoehorn" Germany into pot 1?

Pot 1 guarantees a group of death.
Pot 2 is where the big ones want to go.

it really doesn't. it jsut guarantees you'll get at least one of the big teams. you could get poland and croatia as the other 2 teams and that'd be a nice enough group. plus the first pot guarantees you avoiding the hosts - sure, austria are playing $h!t, but home advantage is a big thing. the hosts generally qualify, would i be right in thinking that belgium are the only exceptions in any world cup/euro tournament?

hence hosts only qualify if they are good enough. Belgium wasn't and went out.
Traditionally hosts have always been important football countries, now with the split hosts situations, you can get weaker hosts. I am sure I'd rather play Austria then any of the pot 2 teams.

It doesn't matter much to me who we face. Whether its Austria or the group of death again. You have to beat everyone you face to be champions. Its irrelevant (Yeah I know it s not) whether you face good teams in the group or at the final.

Oranje however will crash and burn again playing horrible unsightly football, thanks to Van Basten. Probably against the first decent opponent.

Never have I been so pessimistic. Or realistic more likely.

toon h wrote:

debaser wrote:

Effenberg wrote:
WC and EC qualifying results are all that count. Since we didn't have to qualify for the WC, for us it's only the EC qualifiers.

Apart from the fact that it's the typical anti-German conspiracy bullshit, why would they even want to "shoehorn" Germany into pot 1?

Pot 1 guarantees a group of death.
Pot 2 is where the big ones want to go.

it really doesn't. it jsut guarantees you'll get at least one of the big teams. you could get poland and croatia as the other 2 teams and that'd be a nice enough group. plus the first pot guarantees you avoiding the hosts - sure, austria are playing $h!t, but home advantage is a big thing. the hosts generally qualify, would i be right in thinking that belgium are the only exceptions in any world cup/euro tournament?

hence hosts only qualify if they are good enough. Belgium wasn't and went out.
Traditionally hosts have always been important football countries, now with the split hosts situations, you can get weaker hosts. I am sure I'd rather play Austria then any of the pot 2 teams.

true enough, but i guess what i'm trying to say is hosts generally do better than form might suggest (e.g. south korea, germany in recent years). okay, even this boost probably won't be enough for austria but i still wouldn't write them off completely.

you also get ref's favouring home teams, so you never know when one might give a penalty that wasn't etc

bit of a pointless excercise working out what the pots will be before you know what teams have qualified.

Hopefully Poland can get the win against Belgium and put any fears about not qualifying to rest. With a good crowd behind them and the fact that they go into the game knowing a win will do it for them (and it being against quite weak opposition) they should be fine.

Here is the current standing of the UEFA-coefficients:

team points ECQ games ECQ coefficient points WCQ games WCQ coefficient total coefficient
Poland 24 12 2 24 10 2,4 2,181818182
Portugal 23 12 1,916666667 30 12 2,5 2,208333333
Finland 20 12 1,666666667 16 12 1,333333333 1,5
Serbia 20 12 1,666666667 22 10 2,2 1,909090909
Scotland 24 11 2,181818182 13 10 1,3 1,761904762
Italy 23 10 2,3 23 10 2,3 2,3
France 25 11 2,272727273 20 10 2 2,142857143
Greece 25 10 2,5 21 12 1,75 2,090909091
Turkey 18 10 1,8 23 12 1,916666667 1,863636364
Norway 20 10 2 18 10 1,8 1,9
Germany 23 10 2,3 does not apply here 2,3
Czech Republic 23 10 2,3 27 12 2,25 2,272727273
Croatia 26 10 2,6 24 10 2,4 2,5
England 23 11 2,090909091 25 10 2,5 2,285714286
Russia 21 10 2,1 23 12 1,916666667 2
Sweden 23 10 2,3 24 10 2,4 2,35
Spain 22 10 2,2 20 10 2 2,1
Northern Ireland 17 10 1,7 9 10 0,9 1,3
Romania 26 10 2,6 25 12 2,083333333 2,318181818
Netherlands 23 10 2,3 32 12 2,666666667 2,5
Bulgaria 19 10 1,9 15 10 1,5 1,7

With 2 matchdays remaining, we can already make the following conclusions:
- Greece will be in pot 1 as holders.
- Whoever qualifies from Turkey and Norway will be in pot 4
- If Russia qualifies they will be in pot 4
- If Croatia wins their remaining matches they will be in pot 1, if they gain only 4 points, the Netherlands will be in pot 1 with 2 wins, or if they both fail, Germany will be in pot 1 with 2 wins.
- France are likely to be in pot 3
- Italy are likely to be in pot 2
- Portugal is likely to be in pot 3
- Spain are likely to be in pot 4, or in pot 3 at the expense of France

Finally I give you what I regard as likely outcome, even though there are some tricky predictions to make:

pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Netherlands
pot 2: Croatia, Germany, Romania, Italy
pot 3: Czech Republic, Sweden, Portugal, France
pot 4: Spain, Poland, Russia, Norway

lionman wrote:
pot 3: Czech Republic, Sweden, Portugal, France

What a group of death that would be. Be some amazing games.

Parks lives wrote:

lionman wrote:
pot 3: Czech Republic, Sweden, Portugal, France

What a group of death that would be. Be some amazing games.

that's Pot 3, so means that none of those teams should face each other

could end up with switzerland, germany, france, spain though

lionman wrote:Here is the current standing of the UEFA-coefficients:

team points ECQ games ECQ coefficient points WCQ games WCQ coefficient total coefficient
Poland 24 12 2 24 10 2,4 2,181818182
Portugal 23 12 1,916666667 30 12 2,5 2,208333333
Finland 20 12 1,666666667 16 12 1,333333333 1,5
Serbia 20 12 1,666666667 22 10 2,2 1,909090909
Scotland 24 11 2,181818182 13 10 1,3 1,761904762
Italy 23 10 2,3 23 10 2,3 2,3
France 25 11 2,272727273 20 10 2 2,142857143
Greece 25 10 2,5 21 12 1,75 2,090909091
Turkey 18 10 1,8 23 12 1,916666667 1,863636364
Norway 20 10 2 18 10 1,8 1,9
Germany 23 10 2,3 does not apply here 2,3
Czech Republic 23 10 2,3 27 12 2,25 2,272727273
Croatia 26 10 2,6 24 10 2,4 2,5
England 23 11 2,090909091 25 10 2,5 2,285714286
Russia 21 10 2,1 23 12 1,916666667 2
Sweden 23 10 2,3 24 10 2,4 2,35
Spain 22 10 2,2 20 10 2 2,1
Northern Ireland 17 10 1,7 9 10 0,9 1,3
Romania 26 10 2,6 25 12 2,083333333 2,318181818
Netherlands 23 10 2,3 32 12 2,666666667 2,5
Bulgaria 19 10 1,9 15 10 1,5 1,7

With 2 matchdays remaining, we can already make the following conclusions:
- Greece will be in pot 1 as holders.
- Whoever qualifies from Turkey and Norway will be in pot 4
- If Russia qualifies they will be in pot 4
- If Croatia wins their remaining matches they will be in pot 1, if they gain only 4 points, the Netherlands will be in pot 1 with 2 wins, or if they both fail, Germany will be in pot 1 with 2 wins.
- France are likely to be in pot 3
- Italy are likely to be in pot 2
- Portugal is likely to be in pot 3
- Spain are likely to be in pot 4, or in pot 3 at the expense of France

Finally I give you what I regard as likely outcome, even though there are some tricky predictions to make:

pot 1: Austria, Switzerland, Greece, Netherlands
pot 2: Croatia, Germany, Romania, Italy
pot 3: Czech Republic, Sweden, Portugal, France
pot 4: Spain, Poland, Russia, Norway

all looks well for croatia not trying in their game against england..its better to be in pot 2 than pot 1.

Netherlands-Italy-Portugal-Spain

What a group that would be

No surprise here, at the WC 2006 you wanted to be placed....so FIFA made up new rules to make sure we weren't.

Now you don't want to be placed and they'll put us in pot 1