4th Place

So with both Arsenal and Villa slipping up again this weekend, Everton now only sit 8 points behind 4th, so they have to be considered genuine challengers for the final CL spot.

Everton probably have the easiest fixtures on paper, only have to play chelsea. While Arsenal have Pool, Chelsea and United to play. While Villa have got Pool and United. Plus they host Everton at home. Arsenal look pretty fucked to be honest unless we start scoring soon.

Fixtures: Villa

Wednesday, 04 March 2009
Man City v Aston Villa, 19:45
Sunday, 15 March 2009
Aston Villa v Tottenham, 16:00
Sunday, 22 March 2009
Liverpool v Aston Villa, 16:00
Sunday, 05 April 2009
Man Utd v Aston Villa, 16:00
Sunday, 12 April 2009
Aston Villa v Everton, 13:30
Saturday, 18 April 2009
Aston Villa v West Ham, 15:00
Saturday, 25 April 2009
Bolton v Aston Villa, 15:00
Saturday, 02 May 2009
Aston Villa v Hull, 15:00
Saturday, 09 May 2009
Fulham v Aston Villa, 15:00
Saturday, 16 May 2009
Middlesbrough v Aston Villa, 15:00
Sunday, 24 May 2009
Aston Villa v Newcastle, 16:00

Arsenal:

Tuesday, 03 March 2009
West Brom v Arsenal, 19:45
Saturday, 14 March 2009
Arsenal v Blackburn, 15:00
Saturday, 21 March 2009
Newcastle v Arsenal, 17:30
Saturday, 04 April 2009
Arsenal v Man City, 15:00
Saturday, 11 April 2009
Wigan v Arsenal, 15:00
Sunday, 19 April 2009
Liverpool v Arsenal, 16:00
Sunday, 26 April 2009
Arsenal v Middlesbrough, 13:30
Saturday, 02 May 2009
Portsmouth v Arsenal, 15:00
Saturday, 09 May 2009
Arsenal v Chelsea, 15:00
Saturday, 16 May 2009
Man Utd v Arsenal, 15:00
Sunday, 24 May 2009
Arsenal v Stoke, 16:00

Everton:

Wednesday, 04 March 2009
Barclays Premier League
Blackburn v Everton, 20:00
Saturday, 14 March 2009
Everton v Stoke, 15:00
Saturday, 21 March 2009
Portsmouth v Everton, 12:45
Sunday, 05 April 2009
Everton v Wigan, 15:00
Sunday, 12 April 2009
Aston Villa v Everton, 13:30
Saturday, 18 April 2009
Chelsea v Everton, 12:45
Saturday, 25 April 2009
Everton v Man City, 15:00
Saturday, 02 May 2009
Sunderland v Everton, 15:00
Saturday, 09 May 2009
Everton v Tottenham, 15:00
Saturday, 16 May 2009
Everton v West Ham, 15:00
Sunday, 24 May 2009
Fulham v Everton, 16:00

I do think it'll get much closer by the end of the season like the Spurs/Arsenal situation a few years back but Aston Villa will just pip it.

They've got a difficult 4 games but after that it should get easier. Especially as Arsenal have the CL to consider.

Parks lives wrote:I do think it'll get much closer by the end of the season like the Spurs/Arsenal situation a few years back but Aston Villa will just pip it.

They've got a difficult 4 games but after that it should get easier. Especially as Arsenal have the CL to consider.

Yeah i meant to mention Arsenal have the FA Cup and CL to worry about as well. Villa now only have the league.

hopefully aston villa

i am sick of the usual english top4

Hard to say. Everton on best form, but without Arteta, may not win some of the games they have been winning. Watched the 2nd half vs Brom, and they could've been pegged back, it was only a goal completely against the run of play which won it. I could see them losing at Blackburn. But I will be worried if they are in range of Villa when they come to play us

Arsenal will remember how to score soon, but I wonder whether they'll have the fight when it comes to fixtures against teams down the bottom (e.g. WBrom, Blackburn, Newcastle: the next 3)

Villa - depends how we respond to latest blow. Need to win at least one of the next two. Losing momentum at a crucial time, but still have a 6pt gap. Must get back on form, before the gap evaporates.

Still, I think around 72pts will get 4th - for us that's 6 wins, 2 draws; which seems possible with our fixtures, assuming we can sort our home form. If that was the case, Arsenal would need 8 wins, 2 draws to match and Everton 9 wins and a draw. Not much margin for error.

Villa Villa Villa.

otherwise Ashley Young will end up at Liverpool as backup to Dirk Kuyt

The HuddFather wrote:Villa Villa Villa.

otherwise Ashley Young will end up at Liverpool as backup to Dirk Kuyt

Not to mention Babel and Reira. He'd be about 5th choice

I hope for Everton...

GianDeano Zola wrote:I hope for Everton...

There will be no chance of you finishing 6th if that happens

I'll be happy with 7th anyway. I'll be happy with 7th if that gets us UEFA and Everton finish 4th.

Everton if they can maintain any sort of form.

Was just looking back at the last 11 games in 04/05. Everton took 13 points, Liverpool took 15 points and Bolton took 18 points. If Villa and Arsenal are anywhere near as bad, which isn't inconceivable given there fixtures and lack of form, there's no reason why Everton can't.

Villa, because imo they'll be the strongest team when it comes down to it. Arsenal really lost the grip, Villa got something new and exciting to fight for. So does Everton for that sake, but I think they're just not capable of it.

Dwarf wrote:Everton if they can maintain any sort of form.

Was just looking back at the last 11 games in 04/05. Everton took 13 points, Liverpool took 15 points and Bolton took 18 points. If Villa and Arsenal are anywhere near as bad, which isn't inconceivable given there fixtures and lack of form, there's no reason why Everton can't.

If Villa took 18, Everton would need 27 out of 33 pts to overtake. Meaning they could slip up in a maximum of 2-3 games (27 pts = 8 wins, 3 draws or 9 wins, 2 losses). I really can't see them doing that. Bear in mind their home record is worse than ours, and ours is poor.

If we were more around the 12-15 mark, they (and Arsenal) could well overtake. But that would be a considerable slump (we're only actually 2 games without a win in the league - this 'slump' has just been magnified because it's been 5 games in all competitions, over a short space of time).

Villa should take it for me, just because they have the financial clout to build on that and challenge for the title.

If you take out the injuries, I would say Everton have a marginally better squad than Villa. Of the two I would rather they got into the champions league.

Khadrim wrote:If you take out the injuries, I would say Everton have a marginally better squad than Villa. Of the two I would rather they got into the champions league.

What's your view of the other (possible) European battle...you think Fulham can take 7th? Got 2 home fixtures coming up and winning game in hand would put you ahead of Ham. You looked good vs Arsenal.

debaser wrote:
If Villa took 18, Everton would need 27 out of 33 pts to overtake. Meaning they could slip up in a maximum of 2-3 games (27 pts = 8 wins, 3 draws or 9 wins, 2 losses). I really can't see them doing that. Bear in mind their home record is worse than ours, and ours is poor.

If we were more around the 12-15 mark, they (and Arsenal) could well overtake. But that would be a considerable slump (we're only actually 2 games without a win in the league - this 'slump' has just been magnified because it's been 5 games in all competitions, over a short space of time).

If Villa beat Everton they should be safe from there challenge, if they lose then it gets interesting.

Presuming you lose against Man Utd and Liverpool as well, or at least take no more than a point, it becomes 4 wins and 4 draws from your other games would take you to that total. Given the teams that'll be battling for survival down there and you'll hit a slump of some sort doesn't seem so unlikely.

Everton would then need 22 from 30, 27 if you write off the Chelsea game. Villa have managed an 8/2 run this season, so it isn't impossible, potentially could get away with a 6/4 which should be possible.

They started the season poorly, particularly at home, but since they lost to you there home record hasn't been that bad. 4 wins and 2 draws since that game, the draws being to Chelsea and Arsenal.

Fabregas, Rosicky and Wallchart will be back soon, that should give Arsenal a big boost I also think, depending on the draw, they could be in with a shout for the CL.

Aston Villa haven't won for 5 games now and I can see that run continuing until the end of the season.

Everton will continue to grind out results but Arsenal will get more points than them in the remaining games.

4th Arsenal
5th Everton
6th West Ham
7th Aston Villa

debaser wrote:

Khadrim wrote:If you take out the injuries, I would say Everton have a marginally better squad than Villa. Of the two I would rather they got into the champions league.

What's your view of the other (possible) European battle...you think Fulham can take 7th? Got 2 home fixtures coming up and winning game in hand would put you ahead of Ham. You looked good vs Arsenal.

I haven't checked the other teams but we have a nasty run-in with Man U, Liverpool, Villa, all due to come to the cottage. Everton as well but we always beat them at home. Chelsea (sort of) away is another tough game.

Only the home games against Stoke and Hull look promising, even Blackburn looks tough.

Dwarf wrote:

debaser wrote:
If Villa took 18, Everton would need 27 out of 33 pts to overtake. Meaning they could slip up in a maximum of 2-3 games (27 pts = 8 wins, 3 draws or 9 wins, 2 losses). I really can't see them doing that. Bear in mind their home record is worse than ours, and ours is poor.

If we were more around the 12-15 mark, they (and Arsenal) could well overtake. But that would be a considerable slump (we're only actually 2 games without a win in the league - this 'slump' has just been magnified because it's been 5 games in all competitions, over a short space of time).

If Villa beat Everton they should be safe from there challenge, if they lose then it gets interesting.

Presuming you lose against Man Utd and Liverpool as well, or at least take no more than a point, it becomes 4 wins and 4 draws from your other games would take you to that total. Given the teams that'll be battling for survival down there and you'll hit a slump of some sort doesn't seem so unlikely.

Everton would then need 22 from 30, 27 if you write off the Chelsea game. Villa have managed an 8/2 run this season, so it isn't impossible, potentially could get away with a 6/4 which should be possible.

They started the season poorly, particularly at home, but since they lost to you there home record hasn't been that bad. 4 wins and 2 draws since that game, the draws being to Chelsea and Arsenal.

All reasonable points, but I think the bolded applies as much to Everton as Villa. They didn't look great vs Brom; a better team would've scored with the chances Brom missed - I can see Blackburn getting something against them.

debaser wrote:
All reasonable points, but I think the bolded applies as much to Everton as Villa. They didn't look great vs Brom; a better team would've scored with the chances Brom missed - I can see Blackburn getting something against them.

It affects the least confident side the most, which will probably be Villa for the longest periods time if both Everton and Arsenal don't fail to take advantage in the next couple of games. Blackburn will pose a challenge, but no more so than City should at home, a win would be welcomed for them but keeping up with you, presuming you don't lose, will be good enough for now.

Funnily enough, O'Neill blamed the slip-up yesterday on over-confidence! So I'm not entirely sure why we'll be the least confident. Is one last-minute sucker punch going to wipe it out completely? Everton's run started straight after the Villa game where we sucker punched them in about the cruellest way possible.

Everton were dire, Villa were worse. Advantage Arsenal this match day.

Funnily enough, O'Neill blamed the slip-up yesterday on over-confidence! So I'm not entirely sure why we'll be the least confident. Is one last-minute sucker punch going to wipe it out completely? Everton's run started straight after the Villa game where we sucker punched them in about the cruellest way possible.

You go into the run over-confident, certain you'll win and you'll live of excuses for a time, accept luck doesn't always go your way, accept that some fixtures are tough to win and before you know it your putting in mediocre performance that you have no excuses for and realise what a mire you're in.

Arsenal is where I would put my money on. This season villa are lucky that Arsenal are so shite...they are not that good, mainly because of MON MON MON MON.

Everton are poo without Arteta.

Arsenal only 3 points behind now, and Arshavin is gaining fitness. They have the momentum, but slightly tougher games. I still don't think Everton will manage it (with West Ham breathing down their necks for 6th soon), so let's see whether Aston Villa can recover their form.

Apparently, we're not playing against Brom every week for the remainder of the season.