England's World Cup Permutations

Right, with interest beginning to build I've decided to actually start to assess our chances of actually making it far in this summer's world cup. Obviously I'm hypothesising at the moment but what else is there to do over the next 4 weeks?

The group

Our group looks relatively sraight forward. Slovenia and Algeria should be banker victories. The toughest game will be against USA but recent history has shown that we're more than capable of winning that one. We usually start slowly so a draw might be a possibility. Anyway, looking at our group you'd expect us to top it comfortably - hopefully we'll have it wrapped up after the first two games so that we can rotate a bit in the last.

Coming onto the knock outs now…

If we top our group, we'll face the team that comes 2nd in Group D - which is a bit of a 'group of death' with Germany, Serbia, Ghana and Australia fighting it out. You'd expect Germany to be favourites but its really difficult to call.

How would you feel about facing Germany in the 2nd round? On the one hand, it would be great because I think it would be a great, evenly matched game much like the Argentina 98 game. In the other hand, it would spell an early exit.

Of the other three teams, Serbia are probably the toughest. Australia have a bit of quality but nothing particularly scary. Ghana have a fantastic midfield (well, Essien) but I don't think their attackers are particularly scary and given that our defence is our main weakness I'd be relatively confident of progressing. Serbia have a fair amount of quality but we'd be favourites in this game.

So to rate our chances against these four I'd say:
Germany - 50%
Ghana - 65%
Serbia - 60%
Australia - 70%

Accurate?

Onto the quarters…

For this, we'll be playing the knock out winner from the winner of group A against the runner up of group B. To refresh your memories, group A is France/Mexico/Uruguay/South Africa; group b is Greece/Nigeria/South Korea/Argentina.

Group B first. Now Argentina DO have a complete nutcase of a manager but I can't really see them fucking it up in the groups. Greece aren't the organised team they were 6 years ago, Nigeria are a bit shite and South Korea aren't on home turf. So for the purposes of this hypothesising we'll assume that Argentina win their group. Of the others, South Korea and Greece are favourites to come 2nd.

Group A is really tough to call. Looking at personnel you'd have to say France are favourites but again, their coach is a nutcase. South Africa are of course the home nation but I really can't see them doing particularly well - they might scrape 2nd but I can't see them winning the group. Uruguay have a fair bit of quality in attack and I quite fancy them to do quite well in this group and they might be a dark horse to win it. Mexico also have a fair amount of quality across the pitch and always rise to the occasion of the WC - should make an interesting group.

Whoever wins Group A I would be confident of beating the runner up of Group B. So in terms of our chances against France/Mexico/Uruguay, I would say its:

France - 50%
Mexico - 60%
Uruguay - 60%

Accurate? France do have a nutcase for a coach but they have a lot of quality everywhere on the pitch and they do have a top class goalkeeper.

In summary…

I think we have a rather nice run to the semi finals if everything goes as planned. The big risks for us are if Germany or Argentina come 2nd in either of their groups. I think both are a bigger risk to us than France - Germany simply have that knack of turning it on in major tournaments whereas Argentina have a sickening amount of quality, regardless of the lunacy of their manager.

Views and opinions are as always welcome

HUMILIATION DOMINATION GERMANY GERMANY GERMANY

Agree on your summary. The big question is group A. Its like a chaos group where anything can happen but all are beatable.

This is indeed your big chance to get to the semis. Of course Serbia + France would be tough opponents - but ultimaetly I don't agree on the Serbia = dark horse arguments like many on seem to think. They have some quality players as always but they are overrated imo, just like 2006. (I know this could cost me if we slip against them like against Croatia in 2008 but well, i don't think they come anywhere close to the title.)

Looking at all the groups I always think: man the top seeded teams (cept SA) all seem to easily win their groups -- but there have to be some upsets somewhere...

It would be Brazil in the semis.. so I dont get why Capello is so confident we will reach the final.

Maybe he just wants to get himself sacked if he doesnt reach some ridiculous target he has set himself.

Every world cup there's one team that surprises everyone with an appearance in the quarters. Really difficult to call who it might be this year? Chile possibly? They did reasonably well in qualification at least.

Antarion, we're relying on you to win your group. No pressure. It would be a disaster for either of our nations to be knocked out at the last 16 stage.

Six wrote:It would be Brazil in the semis.. so I dont get why Capello is so confident we will reach the final.

Maybe he just wants to get himself sacked if he doesnt reach some ridiculous target he has set himself.

Well what do you expect him to say? The semis would be seen as a great achievement anyway. Brasil are beatable though - my only worry with them is how they might use Nilmar against Glen Johnson. I think the tie would be 50:50 though and Capello obviously has to exude confidence to improve the morale of players.

It would be damning if he said that we'd only get to the semis because Brasil are better than us.

Some pretty obvious observations that anyone could make from their wallchart.

Tweesus wrote:Every world cup there's one team that surprises everyone with an appearance in the quarters. Really difficult to call who it might be this year? Chile possibly? They did reasonably well in qualification at least.

Antarion, we're relying on you to win your group. No pressure. It would be a disaster for either of our nations to be knocked out at the last 16 stage.

I agree it would be a desaster but also the biggest spectactle on this board, the next time we could meet would be in the final (now that would be the best thing possible imo )

For the surprise team: Chile..hm i rate them a bit, but they have to play against Portugal/Ivory C if they advance
I fancy Ivory Coast here. I mean it would be astonishing to not have an african team in the quarters this time, even when the ACN didn't impress anyone with the performances of the african teams.

BoBo Vieri 32 wrote:Some pretty obvious observations that anyone could make from their wallchart.

Well I'm not claiming to be nostradamus you fucktard. I was just getting the discussion ball rolling regarding who people would like us to face, what teams we might struggle against et cetera.

BoBo Vieri 32 wrote:Some pretty obvious observations that anyone could make from their wallchart.

Yeah sure, it looks all so obvious for the top seeders, but you can't really argue otherwise imo. Only the definite knowlegde that there will be some surprises as always. Its nearly impossible to predict though.

Özil wrote:HUMILIATION DOMINATION GERMANY GERMANY GERMANY

The hype has started. Tweeds is already talking about a semi final with Brazil and how England could beat them.

Antarion wrote:Agree on your summary. The big question is group A. Its like a chaos group where anything can happen but all are beatable.

This is indeed your big chance to get to the semis. Of course Serbia + France would be tough opponents - but ultimaetly I don't agree on the Serbia = dark horse arguments like many on seem to think. They have some quality players as always but they are overrated imo, just like 2006. (I know this could cost me if we slip against them like against Croatia in 2008 but well, i don't think they come anywhere close to the title.)

Looking at all the groups I always think: man the top seeded teams (cept SA) all seem to easily win their groups -- but there have to be some upsets somewhere...

They could fold and easily go out in the group stage - they are in a tough group. But that said, their talent is actually under rated on this MB if you ask me... they have enough talent to trouble anyone. Thats one "smaller" team you want to avoid....

BoBo Vieri 32 wrote:The hype has started. Tweeds is already talking about a semi final with Brazil and how England could beat them.

TBH, this time the hype is much less than previous world cup.... dunno whether its coz of the euro debacle or perhaps its too early and they hype will start in a few weeks.... but it is less, and thats so refreshing

Bobo got merked.

bluenine wrote:

BoBo Vieri 32 wrote:The hype has started. Tweeds is already talking about a semi final with Brazil and how England could beat them.

TBH, this time the hype is much less than previous world cup.... dunno whether its coz of the euro debacle or perhaps its too early and they hype will start in a few weeks.... but it is less, and thats so refreshing

It'll start soon mate. I've already seen a few shops with their 'world cup' section selling the flag of St. George in various guises.

Once the papers have calmed down from the 30 man squad selection the hype will commence.

Kimbo wrote:Bobo got merked.

how so?

Tweesus wrote:

bluenine wrote:

BoBo Vieri 32 wrote:The hype has started. Tweeds is already talking about a semi final with Brazil and how England could beat them.

TBH, this time the hype is much less than previous world cup.... dunno whether its coz of the euro debacle or perhaps its too early and they hype will start in a few weeks.... but it is less, and thats so refreshing

It'll start soon mate. I've already seen a few shops with their 'world cup' section selling the flag of St. George in various guises.

Once the papers have calmed down from the 30 man squad selection the hype will commence.

Oh my GOD! Not FLAGS! You won't see any of those lovely, calm and non hyping nations sellling FLAGS! The nations where children wear gumdrop smiles and unicorns slide down magical rainbows.

Tweedles you homo erectus, a few flags hardly constitutes hype.

This is what grates me. We're so precious now about not hyping or showing patriotism incase it offends anyone. I say FUCK YOU, the World cup is massive party, enjoy it, wave a flag or three

Noah and the Bale wrote:

Tweesus wrote:

bluenine wrote:

BoBo Vieri 32 wrote:The hype has started. Tweeds is already talking about a semi final with Brazil and how England could beat them.

TBH, this time the hype is much less than previous world cup.... dunno whether its coz of the euro debacle or perhaps its too early and they hype will start in a few weeks.... but it is less, and thats so refreshing

It'll start soon mate. I've already seen a few shops with their 'world cup' section selling the flag of St. George in various guises.

Once the papers have calmed down from the 30 man squad selection the hype will commence.

Oh my GOD! Not FLAGS! You won't see any of those lovely, calm and non hyping nations sellling FLAGS! The nations where children wear gumdrop smiles and unicorns slide down magical rainbows.

Tweedles you homo erectus, a few flags hardly constitutes hype.

This is what grates me. We're so precious now about not hyping or showing patriotism incase it offends anyone. I say FUCK YOU, the World cup is massive party, enjoy it, wave a flag or three

Going to buy my n11 shirt tomorrow :hype:

bluenine wrote:

Antarion wrote:Agree on your summary. The big question is group A. Its like a chaos group where anything can happen but all are beatable.

This is indeed your big chance to get to the semis. Of course Serbia + France would be tough opponents - but ultimaetly I don't agree on the Serbia = dark horse arguments like many on seem to think. They have some quality players as always but they are overrated imo, just like 2006. (I know this could cost me if we slip against them like against Croatia in 2008 but well, i don't think they come anywhere close to the title.)

Looking at all the groups I always think: man the top seeded teams (cept SA) all seem to easily win their groups -- but there have to be some upsets somewhere...

They could fold and easily go out in the group stage - they are in a tough group. But that said, their talent is actually under rated on this MB if you ask me... they have enough talent to trouble anyone. Thats one "smaller" team you want to avoid....

Nah i think nearly everyone have them on their little book of secrets here. How can they be underrated when its quiet possible for them to go out in the GS anyway? They are talented, like i said, but thats it.

@ one trick

Not JUST flags.

Mugs, hats, coffee trays, tea towels, condoms (I am NOT joking), tens of different shirts, nighties + pjams and dog collars.

Motherfucking DOG COLLARS!

Tweesus wrote:@ one trick

Not JUST flags.

Mugs, hats, coffee trays, tea towels, condoms (I am NOT joking), tens of different shirts, nighties + pjams and dog collars.

Motherfucking DOG COLLARS!

I'll be buying one for your mum then.

Tweedles, this doesn't constitute hype. A marketing blitz for sure, but not hype. None of these products says : England are the bestest team in the World and are going to bring the trophy home. It might seem crass to your middle class sensibilities that anyone would fly a St George's flag on their car roof or around Rex's neck, but it's what makes the World Cup what it is. I won't personally be doing any of these things either, but come on man, lighten up, these people want to show their support, it happens all over the World too. They just don't have as many dogs (like Mrs Tweedles) as we do

Yeah the marketing hell has begun. Walk round a supermarket and more & more products now feature some football reference.

In co-op yesterday they were selling bread rolls which had been pressed to have football hexagon design on them. And charging twice the price for the excitement

I can only imagine what tv advertising is getting like (or will be in the next few weeks).

Still none of this is hyping England per se. It's just desperately trying to piggyback on the world cup which will be focus of everyone's attentions for the next month or so..

So fucking what if the hype is building? This is sport! And so fucking what if people start overrating Englands chances? This has been going on since the dawn of time! At one point the nation was lining up behind Frank Bruno against Tyson, obviously he was going to get his arse kicked, ditto Hatton against Floyd. England pretty much always get raped at cricket, it doesn't stop the unathletic portion of our sports fans getting all excited and saying they will beat Australia for the first time in 30 years. And other countries do it just as much, on this very board the krauts are the worst "offenders". All this talk about English hype is pathetic, the world cup wouldn't be all that interesting if everything wasn't built up out of all proportion.

The Krauts actually reach the final of a major tournament every once in a while, so perhaps the HYPE is jutified there.

Papers like the Sun will obviously have headlines implying that we'll win the WC in the lead up to it. It sells papers at the end of the day and only the lower ebs of the proletariat (so about 60% of the population) actually believe most of what is written.

I think most sensibly minded people think that we should be making the quarters and that the semis could be considered a good achievement. Anything more than that would send the country into hyperdrive.

BoBo Vieri 32 wrote:The Krauts actually reach the final of a major tournament every once in a while, so perhaps the HYPE is jutified there.

I'm not just talking about football, i'm talking about all sports. In all competitions blotto's conveyor belt of talent is regularly derailed.

I might be wrong, but i don't think every german is like otto.

BoBo Vieri 32 wrote:I might be wrong, but i don't think every german is like otto.

So what are you saying? You think the Germans don't hype their guys? I see it all the time in boxing, they always build their guys up but they never make it to the top.

Not everything has to be boxing related Kimbo.