by lionman Fri Jun 08, 2007 9:14 pm
I bothered to calculate the coefficients with the standing as of nowfor the teams likely to qualify fot the tournament. I decided to include Portugal, Turkey, England and the Netherlands, even though they are currently not under the top two placs in their groups. Play-off games for the WC 2006 are not considered (affecting Spain, Turkey and the Czech Republic).
team points ECQ games ECQ coefficient points WCQ games WCQ coefficient total coefficient
Poland 19 9 2,111111111 24 10 2,4 2,255555556
Portugal 14 7 2 30 12 2,5 2,25
France 18 7 2,571428571 20 10 2 2,285714286
Italy 16 7 2,285714286 23 10 2,3 2,292857143
Greece 18 7 2,571428571 21 12 1,75 2,160714286
Turkey 13 6 2,166666667 23 12 1,916666667 2,041666667
Germany 19 7 2,714285714 does not apply here 2,714285714
Czech Republic 14 7 2 27 12 2,25 2,125
Croatia 17 7 2,428571429 24 10 2,4 2,414285714
England 14 7 2 25 10 2,5 2,25
Sweden 18 7 2,571428571 24 10 2,4 2,485714286
Spain 15 7 2,142857143 20 10 2 2,071428571
Romania 17 7 2,428571429 25 12 2,083333333 2,255952381
Netherlands 14 6 2,333333333 32 12 2,666666667 2,5
Ranking
1. Greece (def. Champions) 2,161
2. Germany 2,714
3. Netherlands 2,5
4. Sweden 2,486
5. Croatia 2,414
6. Italy 2,293
7. France 2,286
8. Romania 2,256
9. Poland 2,256
10. Portugal* 2,25
11. England* 2,25
12. Czech Republic 2,125
13. Spain 2,071
14. Turkey 2,042
* places decided by average number of goals scored in ECQ
As can be seen, Germany are rather sure to be seeded; the Netherlands, Sweden and Croatia are quite sure to be in pot 2, the rest is still to close to call, with Spain and the Czech Republic likely to be in pot 4.
So thgis group is possible:
Germany
Netherlands
France
England