Portugal, Italy, England, Spain

These are the 4 "biggest"/"most favoured" sides currently in danger of not qualifying for Euro 2008. Looking at their respective standings and upcoming matches, I think Italy and England look most vulnerable:

Italy have tough away games against Ukraine and their direct rival Scotland.

England still have to play Russia twice, and then a final day game against Croatia where the pressure could lead to anything happening.

Portugal should make it through without problems IMO.

Spain have the toughest fixtures on paper, but I don't think N. Ireland will be able to maintain their form under Worthington, and Spain are also the only one of these 4 who are at least level on points with their rival (NI) and not behind. So I think Spain will also eventually scrape through.

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Which of these 4 does everyone else think will make it?

In the end all 4 will be there, believe me

I'm with Fey , all 4 should make it

I think the Soviets will cause England problems in Moscow.

I think the "group of death" will claim a big victim.... that one of the world cup quarter finalist will be knocked out was certain when the draw was made, but anything can still happen in that group... Italy, France or Ukraine can all qualify or go out.

After tonights results, France look a bit safer than the other two, but more points will be dropped... specially if the scots keep playing such good football - they are not yet out of it, coz the big teams will drop points against each other! The Scots are an upset away from qualifying.

kas wrote:These are the 4 "biggest"/"most favoured" sides currently in danger of not qualifying for Euro 2008. Looking at their respective standings and upcoming matches, I think Italy and England look most vulnerable:

Italy have tough away games against Ukraine and their direct rival Scotland.

England still have to play Russia twice, and then a final day game against Croatia where the pressure could lead to anything happening.

Portugal should make it through without problems IMO.

Spain have the toughest fixtures on paper, but I don't think N. Ireland will be able to maintain their form under Worthington, and Spain are also the only one of these 4 who are at least level on points with their rival (NI) and not behind. So I think Spain will also eventually scrape through.

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Which of these 4 does everyone else think will make it?

They all should qualify. Italy probably have the toughest task though, both away matches are not going to be easy, the match against Ukraine on Wednesday is going to be crucial. They basically can't afford to drop points there.

I'd like them all to qualify also, especially England and Italy. The former because they are one of our rivals, and the majority of people on here are English, that's why a tournament without England next year would not be really good for the atmosphere. The latter, because I, 82 million other Germans, and especially our team want revenge for last year, preferably in the knock out stages.

But generally speaking, I always want the 'big nations' to qualify, otherwise something is missing.

Fair call on England even with a positive game today under there belt who knows what McClaren will play against Russia.
Italy should pull through as long as Scotland drops a few points. If France have a hard time with the Scots confidence grows and Italy could have problems.
Portugal will go through.
Spain are better off than England by a small margin. Lose away to Denmark in October they still could be in trouble.

Out of the four, England have it the toughest by far. Good win today, but absolutely nothing has changed. Even with a win against Russia, there's still lots of work to be done. I'm afraid that Croatia win on the road against Israel may have KO England already.

Aren't ya forgetting that Ukraine are very much in the equation, specially coz both their big games (Ita & Fra) are now at home?

Brian2468 wrote:Fair call on England even with a positive game today under there belt who knows what McClaren will play against Russia.
Italy should pull through as long as Scotland drops a few points. If France have a hard time with the Scots confidence grows and Italy could have problems.
Portugal will go through.
Spain are better off than England by a small margin. Lose away to Denmark in October they still could be in trouble.

Finland just got another result away to Serbia. Serbia can also qualify...Poland obviously top of the group.

1-Poland-10 (20)
2-Finland-10 (18.)
3-Portugal-9 (16)
4-Serbia-9 (15)
5-Belgium-9 (10)
6-Armenia-8 (8.)
7-Kazakhstan-9 (6)
8-Azerbaijan-8 (5)

Not that straight forward for Portugal IMO.

blueline..Ukraine drew with Georgia today. Italy are world champions for a good reason. Playing away will take the pressure off your national squad a little and I think your team will knuckle down could home with 3 points.

@Deano: Look at the rest of the fixtures though...Portugal definitely have things in their favour.


@Blut: I agree that it's important for England to qualify to make the tournament better overall - you can be sure the organisers are all desperate for this to happen, because English fans are among the biggest travelers and spenders.

I don't know why Italy fans should be that worried. If Italy get a result in Kyiv (3 points), then I am confident we will be in 2nd place because I can't see Scotland beat France, but I can see a draw.

Forza Italia!Forza Milan! wrote:I don't know why Italy fans should be that worried.

You gave the answer yourself...

If Italy get a result in Kyiv (3 points) [...]

If Italy win in Ukraine -> you basically have to win there, and can't really afford to drop points anymore. That's why there is reason to worry, the pressure is high.

However, I still expect you to qualify, as I said earlier.

blutgraetsche wrote:

Forza Italia!Forza Milan! wrote:I don't know why Italy fans should be that worried.

You gave the answer yourself...

If Italy get a result in Kyiv (3 points) [...]

If Italy win in Ukraine -> you basically have to win there, and can't really afford to drop points anymore. That's why there is reason to worry, the pressure is high.

However, I still expect you to qualify, as I said earlier.

Yeah but it's not like going to Germany or even Serbia.

My point is that most qualifying groups were tough. Italy don't have to rely on other results if they get the job done. Of course pressure is going to be high, but they are in a fairly good position.

Ukraine might not be the that much of a force anymore these days, but playing them on their own turf is often not a really pleasant experience, matches in the East rarely are. They should not be underestimated. Don't forget that they have a match in hand, and still have a chance to qualify also.

But yeah, Italy still have it in their own hands to qualify, and there should be no excuse for failure. And they have a lot of experienced players who are used to pressure situations like these. That's why I expect them to prevail and qualify.

Poland:
Finland (a)
Kazakhstan (h)
Belgium (h)
Serbia (a)

Finland:
Poland (h)
Belgium (a)
Azerbaijan (h)
Portugal (a)

Portugal:
Serbia (h)
Azerbaijan (a)
Kazakhstan (a)
Armenia (h)
Finland (h)

Serbia:
Portugal (a)
Armenia (a)
Azerbaijan (a)
Kazakhstan (h)
Poland (h)

Yeah Ok...they have easier fixtures and an extra one...they still remain 4 points behind Poland and 2 behind Finland though.


Poland I reckon could get 8 points.
Finland could get 8 points.
Portugal could get 15 points.
Serbia could get 10 points. IMO.

That would leave it as Portugal topping the group. However that is if they don't f@ck up. They've just drew at home to Poland...and have already drew with Finland and Armenia.

I'm not saying they won't qualify...but Portugal could easily f@ck up against Serbia or Finland. Finland beat Poland in Poland 3-1 and just drew 0-0 with Serbia in Serbia. They are 2nd in the group for a reason.

Italy should be okay, we are bound to stuff it up somewhere. Ukraine have already stuffed themselves with that draw in Georgia yesterday.

These for teams will qualify. They have already used one joker and they can't afford to use another one. As for Italy, I'm sure they will win in Ukraine, because this team is the shadow of what it was after the world cup. Come on their main player is not even plying at club level.

I don't want Spain to qualify. That team is an embarassment. Spain will probably scrape through somehow only to go out in the first round of the Euro.

England should qualify as well, but you can't put anything past Hiddink. The man is a genius and a Russia win or draw in Wembley wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

but torrente they shouldn't be so $h!t its just the manager is useless, and RFEF can't afford to sack him

Not qualyfing would be even more of an embarassment.

Italy need 4 points out of Scotland and Ukraine to qualify, so can still afford another draw. I am assuming that Italy will win the home games against Georgia and Faroe Islands.

So a win against Ukraine will make Italy quite comfortable. A draw would put a lot of pressure on the game against Scotland, and a loss would severly compromise qualification.

The biggest problem is the absentees... among the regulars a year ago, Italy are without Nesta, Totti, Toni, Pirlo, Gattuso, and Materazzi for this game... thats a big blow, and each absentee adds up. I hope this means that the likes of Iaquinta, Aquilani, & Perotta get a start.

blutgraetsche wrote:Ukraine might not be the that much of a force anymore these days, but playing them on their own turf is often not a really pleasant experience, matches in the East rarely are. They should not be underestimated. Don't forget that they have a match in hand, and still have a chance to qualify also.

But yeah, Italy still have it in their own hands to qualify, and there should be no excuse for failure. And they have a lot of experienced players who are used to pressure situations like these. That's why I expect them to prevail and qualify.

Yes, you need to win one of the away matches at least to secure the qualification, and both home matches, but that should be a given. 2 draws in the away matches might not be enough, depending on how Scotland does in the other matches, of course.

It's an open group. France, Italy, Scotland and Ukraine still have realistic chances to qualify, so we will see a couple of true showdowns.

The teams that can handle the pressure best will qualify, that's why I expect the more experienced sides, France and Italy, to prevail.

I just read that even De Rossi is suffering from an injury and is doubtful - that wipes out Italys entire midfield!!

This is not a good sign. Hope is becomes fit to start.

bluenine wrote:Italy need 4 points out of Scotland and Ukraine to qualify, so can still afford another draw. I am assuming that Italy will win the home games against Georgia and Faroe Islands.

So a win against Ukraine will make Italy quite comfortable. A draw would put a lot of pressure on the game against Scotland, and a loss would severly compromise qualification.

The biggest problem is the absentees... among the regulars a year ago, Italy are without Nesta, Totti, Toni, Pirlo, Gattuso, and Materazzi for this game... thats a big blow, and each absentee adds up. I hope this means that the likes of Iaquinta, Aquilani, & Perotta get a start.

blutgraetsche wrote:Ukraine might not be the that much of a force anymore these days, but playing them on their own turf is often not a really pleasant experience, matches in the East rarely are. They should not be underestimated. Don't forget that they have a match in hand, and still have a chance to qualify also.

But yeah, Italy still have it in their own hands to qualify, and there should be no excuse for failure. And they have a lot of experienced players who are used to pressure situations like these. That's why I expect them to prevail and qualify.

blutgraetsche wrote:Yes, you need to win one of the away matches at least to secure the qualification, and both home matches, but that should be a given. 2 draws in the away matches might not be enough, depending on how Scotland does in the other matches, of course.

It's an open group. France, Italy, Scotland and Ukraine still have realistic chances to qualify, so we will see a couple of true showdowns.

The teams that can handle the pressure best will qualify, that's why I expect the more experienced sides, France and Italy, to prevail.

The problem for Italy seems to be the new coach is not experienced/good enough to handle this pressure. And with key older players out, you're losing the calmness and leadership on the pitch as well.

More injuries is the last thing you need now. You need your key players to be fit, experience is going to be crucial in the battles ahead.

You may have quality backups, but they don't have the experience that often makes the difference yet.

kas wrote:
The problem for Italy seems to be the new coach is not experienced/good enough to handle this pressure. And with key older players out, you're losing the calmness and leadership on the pitch as well.

Good point about Donadoni. He experienced everything as a player, but not as a coach. And yes, Italy really can't afford more injuries.

We are in big trouble. I'm not confident of beating either Scotland or Ukraine.

If it comes down to whoever wins qualfies when we play Scotland on their own turf, then I think we'll get beat.

A win against Ukraine is a must IMO.

Well well well...maybe it'll be Portugal as the only ones from these 4 missing out!!! Should France be added to the list?

Well one of Italy or France deffo looks to be on the way out. Still say Portugal will make it through, they are playing rubbish but last minute goals denied them wins, and they were missing Carvalho, Andrade and a few others. Stop playing Ronaldo as a targetman Scolari ya muppet