Treble watch

The annual treble watch gets under way a little late this season. I know Man Utd fans like to think it's a quintuple watch for winning "all five" trophies (not sure why they don't count the Charity Shield or forget about the European Super Cup but hey, who's nitpicking), but the other ones have been and gone anyway.

In England there are still 2 teams with a realistic chance:
Man Utd
Chelsea

Spain:
Barcelona

Portugal:
Porto

and small trebles (UEFA cup)

Dynamo Kiev
HSV

how do you rate each team's chances for a treble success this year?

by now, only Porto had to relinquish their hopes of a treble.

what chances for each in their quests?

Man U are in the driving seat of the league, but still have to overcome Everton and Chelsea in the cup and Arsenal and either Chelsea or Barcelona in the CL.

Chelsea are a little off the pace in the league but have already booked their place in the FA cup final.

Barcelona look a good bet to win the title and are in the final of the Copa del Rey against a lesser fancied Athletic.

Therefore, for the proper treble, Barcelona look the likeliest to achieve it. Chances of this?
30% for the CL x 65% for the Copa x 75% for the league = 15%?

what about the other teams?

I think our chances of winning the CL are no more or less than the other 3...it's far too tight to call at this point in time. And I'm more optimistic about the league - 85%.

So I'll say: 85% x 25% x 60% (Copa) = 12.75%

Chelsea and Man. Utd. will be easier to predict once we know what happens in the other FA Cup semifinal today. Realistically I don't think Chelsea have a chance of winning the league anyway. Same for Hamburg in the German league.

As for the "small" trebles, aren't Dynamo technically out of the running, as the Ukrainian league runs on a Spring-->Autumn cycle, doesn't it?

Barca have the greatest chance as the league should really be won without to much trouble and the copa final should also be fairly comfortable so it's just the cl. With Man Utd while the league is comfortable enough Chelsea in the final if we even get there is almost a 50/50 then the cl is probably the same chance as Barca beating two top teams is never straight forward.

maybe we should give Man Utd the chance now for a "mini-treble" with the Carling Cup instead of the FA cup.

Kas, why do you think HSV cannot win the league? they are 3 points off the top with 6 games to go!

I think it'll be tough as they are chasing 2 teams not just one. And Hamburg have to play 4 more fixtures (UEFA and German Cup semifinals) than both Wolfsburg and Bayern. Not impossible, but not probable IMO.

Chelsea are about 16:1 to win the league now, which would give them about a 7% chance according to the bookies. I think being generous I could give them a 10% chance.
For the CL, let's say 25% and for the FA cup 65%.
Chance for a treble therefore 65% x 25% x 10% = 1.6%.

As for the Ukraine, their league started last July and finishes next month. Dynamo Kiev are 12 points clear with 6 games to go. Therefore, I wouldn't give Shakhtar who are 2nd a realistic chance anymore.
They play each other in the semis of the national cup next month as well as in the UEFA cup.
They also play each other on the last day of the season to top it all off.

Hamburg got knocked out of the German Cup, so they're out of the running.

Chelsea's draw means they're basically out of the league race.

So that leaves Manchester United (but with a Carling Cup), Barcelona, and Dynamo Kiev (but with a UEFA Cup).

Dynamo out of the UEFA cup, so we have Man Utd for the decaf treble (+world club cup) or Barcelona for the first club in Spain to win the treble.

treble watch update

Man U closing in on their own "little" treble after going to within a point of the league title.

Barcelona, already within a point of the league title, win the Copa del Rey with a magnificent display against Athletic.

All in all, still Man U should be regarded the favourites, mostly due to the injuries and suspensions in Can Barca.

Again two teams fighting for the treble. Is the top of the top clubs getting even smaller?!

Not really, because this year we have different clubs involved.