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Hypothesis: Expanding on my Big4 theory, I just wanted to test the following hypothesis I have sometimes argued about these teams:
1. Italy are prone to upsets, but play better against Big teams
2. Germany rarely get upset, but do get beaten by Big teams
Methodology: The only way to prove this is to compare the historical games between the Big 4 with how they have done against all opposition. Underlying assumption being that the Big 4 theory holds and that these nations (Brazil, Italy, Argentina, & Germany) have been quality all along. The way I have done this is by taking all games between the big 4, calculated the win-draw-loss %, and then used the conventional points system (3 points for a win, and 1 for a draw) to end up with a point score.
For example, Brazil has played 117 games against Italy, Argentina, & Germany, out of which they have won 48, and drawn 28. That relates to winning 41% of the games, and drawing 24%. The point score (for 100 games against other Big 4 countries) is 3*41 + 1*24 = 147 points.
ie for every 100 games that Brazil has played against other Big 4 countries, they have got 147 points.
The Result:
The clearity of the result shocked me too, even tho it was consistant with my hypothesis - the significant difference between the nations was very surprising... For every 100 games that the Big 4 play against each other, the results are as follows:
Country - Won - Draw - Lost - Points
1. Ita ---- 46.3 - 27.8 -- 25.9 - 167
2. Bra --- 41 --- 24 ---- 35 --- 147
3. Arg --- 36.5 - 26.1 -- 34.4 - 136
4. Ger --- 24.2 - 25.8 -- 50 --- 99
Which proves the point that historically, Italy has played very well against the Big 4, while Germany have been the whipping boys among the Big 4. Now to undertsand the contrast, I did the same analysis on all games these countires have played against all opposition. The results:
Couintry - Points
1. Brazil ---- 207
2. Germany- 192
3. Italy ------ 188
4. Argentina- 184
Which proves the point that Germany and Brazil do exceedingly well against smaller countries, while Argentina and Italy are more prone to upsets.
Interestingly, Italys results between Big 4 and all countries do not differ by that much... which shows that Italy do raise their games against top opposition, a hypothesis that every Italian knows well.
Sources:
All data is accurate and has been verified by two independent sources, including:
- Rsssf archives
- TheFA.com
- dfb.de
- forza-azzurri.info
1. Italy are prone to upsets, but play better against Big teams
2. Germany rarely get upset, but do get beaten by Big teams
Methodology: The only way to prove this is to compare the historical games between the Big 4 with how they have done against all opposition. Underlying assumption being that the Big 4 theory holds and that these nations (Brazil, Italy, Argentina, & Germany) have been quality all along. The way I have done this is by taking all games between the big 4, calculated the win-draw-loss %, and then used the conventional points system (3 points for a win, and 1 for a draw) to end up with a point score.
For example, Brazil has played 117 games against Italy, Argentina, & Germany, out of which they have won 48, and drawn 28. That relates to winning 41% of the games, and drawing 24%. The point score (for 100 games against other Big 4 countries) is 3*41 + 1*24 = 147 points.
ie for every 100 games that Brazil has played against other Big 4 countries, they have got 147 points.
The Result:
The clearity of the result shocked me too, even tho it was consistant with my hypothesis - the significant difference between the nations was very surprising... For every 100 games that the Big 4 play against each other, the results are as follows:
Country - Won - Draw - Lost - Points
1. Ita ---- 46.3 - 27.8 -- 25.9 - 167
2. Bra --- 41 --- 24 ---- 35 --- 147
3. Arg --- 36.5 - 26.1 -- 34.4 - 136
4. Ger --- 24.2 - 25.8 -- 50 --- 99
Which proves the point that historically, Italy has played very well against the Big 4, while Germany have been the whipping boys among the Big 4. Now to undertsand the contrast, I did the same analysis on all games these countires have played against all opposition. The results:
Couintry - Points
1. Brazil ---- 207
2. Germany- 192
3. Italy ------ 188
4. Argentina- 184
Which proves the point that Germany and Brazil do exceedingly well against smaller countries, while Argentina and Italy are more prone to upsets.
Interestingly, Italys results between Big 4 and all countries do not differ by that much... which shows that Italy do raise their games against top opposition, a hypothesis that every Italian knows well.
Sources:
All data is accurate and has been verified by two independent sources, including:
- Rsssf archives
- TheFA.com
- dfb.de
- forza-azzurri.info
This shows how well Italy have played against top teams historically!! Catenaccio beats the samba, eh? 
