Why is Egypt's 3-5-2 so successful - and how can England counter it?
Most teams have abandoned three at the back for good reason, and by playing one up front Fabio Capello can expose its flaws
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Evolution is not a linear or a constant process, and there are times when small pockets of a previous age are left behind. Most of the world has long since abandoned 3-5-2, but for Egypt, who face England at Wembley on Wednesday, it remains very much alive. Their coach, Hassan Shehata, has experimented at times in friendlies with 4-4-2, but in competitive games, he has always used 3-5-2.
Egypt's veteran captain, Ahmed Hassan, acknowledges that the rest of the world may have left 3-5-2 in the past, but – quite reasonably – asks what the point would be in changing when it continues to bring such success. "We are all comfortable in the system," he said. "We are an experienced team and we have played this way together for a long time."
For six years under Shehata, to be precise, in which time they have never lost an Africa Cup of Nations game, lifting the trophy three times. So, if 3-5-2 is really outmoded, how can Egypt's continued success be explained?
Egypt's system dissected
Most obviously, the system suits the players they have. Sayed Moawad and Ahmed Fathy (or Ahmed El-Mohammady if Fathy is used as the holding midfielder) are fine attacking full-backs, both industrious and adept in the final third. Emad Motoeb is an unusual striker in that his prime virtue appears to be efficiency: he isn't especially quick, big or skilful, but he has been Egypt's one attacking constant in the last three Nations Cups, playing alongside Mido, then Amr Zaki then Mohamed Zidane; he probably needs to be partnered by somebody explosive or unpredictable. Hassan himself is a fine playmaker from the right side of a midfield trident, but probably needs the support of a holding player behind him and, now 34, he benefits from the ceaseless running of Hosny Abd Rabou.
Tactical systems, of course, are designed to get the best out of the players available; at club level, when players can be bought to fill specific roles, managers can just about begin with a template and fit players into it; at national level tactics must always be mediated between what a manager may consider ideal and the resources he has.
The other reason Egypt's 3-5-2 has been successful is the opposition. To begin with, Egypt are demonstrably well-organised – something enhanced by the familiarity brought about by six years playing together under the same manager, a continuity unthinkable in west Africa – while many of their opponents are a shambles. In Angola, only
Egypt, Zambia and, after their first game, Ghana could take any credit for their discpline.
Even those sides who do have a discernible shape have tended until very recently to play with two central strikers, which is precisely the system 3-5-2 was designed to counter. Wael Gomaa picks up one, Mahmoud Fathallah picks up the other, and Hany Said sweeps behind. That is changing – in Ghana two years ago, only Morocco and Guinea did
not have a dual-striker system as their default; in Angola, only seven sides did.
So how should England deal with Egypt's formation?
If England use the 4-2-3-1 that carried them through qualifying, that should cause Egypt problems, providing they can overcome the difficulty of playing against a system they are unused to encountering. The logic of why 3-5-2 struggles to cope with a single striker is most simply put by Nelsinho Baptista, the experienced Brazilian coach who has developed software to explore the weaknesses of one system when matched against another. "Imagine Team A is playing 3-5-2 against Team B with a 4-5-1 that becomes 4-3-3," he said. "So Team A has to commit the wing-backs to deal with Team B's wingers. That means Team A is using five men to deal with three forwards.
"In midfield Team A has three central midfielders against three, so the usual advantage of 3-5-2 against 4-4-2 is lost. Then at the front it is two forwards against four defenders, but the spare defenders are full-backs. One can push into midfield to create an extra man there, while still leaving three v two at the back. So Team B can dominate possession, and also has greater width."
That, though, presupposes a certain quality from the wingers, and the truth is that African football – Egypt, who when fit can call on Mohamed Aboutrika and Mohamed Barakat, aside – is short of creators in general and wide creators in particular. If the winger cannot impose himself on the wing-back, then the wing-back can push the winger back, leaving the opponent's centre-forward isolated. If the wing-back is especially successful, he can effectively drive the opposing winger so far that he effectively occupies the same zone as his own full-back. That then means that the side using 3-5-2 can over-man in central midfield. That happens naturally when 3-5-2 plays 4-4-2, or, against 4-3-3, if the libero can step up to become an auxiliary midfielder, something at which Hany Said is adept.
Notably, in the past two Cup of Nations finals, Egypt's opponents have switched formation to play with a lone forward. In Ghana, Cameroon played a 4-4-2 against Egypt in their first group game, were comprehensively outplayed, and were lucky to lose only 4-2. In the final, they switched to 4-2-3-1, and successfully frustrated Egypt
before a Rigobert Song error gifted them victory. This year, Ghana similarly reshuffled their 4-4-2 to 4-2-3-1, and effectively countered Egypt until a late Mohamed Nagui winner. In both cases, Egypt, although the better team, struggled to find any rhythm, and might have been in trouble against sides of greater potency.
So where have Africa's creators gone?
That then raises the issue of where the creators have gone; why west Africa has, in a generation, not produced a player like Jay-Jay Okocha or Abedi Pele. Okocha blames the attempt to impose discipline and adopt a "European model", but that has not prevented European nations from producing gifted creators. Manchester United's scout in Africa, Tom Vernon, who runs an academy in the hills above Accra, suggests that the fault lies partly with European clubs, who tend to have what he terms "the Papa Bouba Diop template" in mind. The African players who have succeeded in Europe in the past have usually been big and robust, and so clubs look only for something similar. Players called up by European clubs at a young age develop faster and have a higher profile, and so it is they who make it into the national team.
Vernon also believes the way the game is first played by children - at least in Ghana - has a tendency to shape them as driving central midfielders. "Look at how kids play," he said. "They have a pitch maybe twenty or thirty yards long, and set up two stones a couple of feet apart at either end, often with gutters or ditches marking the boundaries at the sides. So it's a tiny area. The game becomes all about receiving the ball, turning and driving through the middle."
To put Egypt's success down to the failures of others would be unfair, for this is a highly gifted generation of players led by a very fine coach, but one of the great frustrations of their repeated failures to qualify for the World Cup is that the side that has dominated recent African football has not been able to test itself against the rest of the world. Their victory over Italy in the Confederations Cup last summer suggested the potential they have.
Will the lessons that England learn tomorrow night be useful for the World Cup?
It's hard to say how useful tomorrow's game at Wembley will be in preparing for the World Cup group game against Algeria, who began the Cup of Nations with three at the back but rapidly switched to a back four having been beaten 3-0 by Malawi. The Rangers centre-back Madjid Bougherra admitted he didn't know whether Algeria would use a three or a four at the World Cup, but he preference was for a four, on the grounds that the relationship between defenders is easier to establish in the more familiar system.
For England, it is probably as well to have the experience; for Egypt, Wednesday's game is, as Hassan put it, "a big country to put on our CVs, a big game in our history", and another chance to show that, even with their anachronistic formation, they might have made an impression had they reached the World Cup.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2010/mar/02/the-question-egypt-england-three-defence
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